Attendance Is Not Achievement: Rethinking Causality in UK Schools
Some thoughts scribbled in the free response box of another survey, responding to school's obsession with measuring attendance data (and poor discussion of other underlying performance factors) Across the UK, school leaders and policymakers increasingly repeat a simple mantra: attendance equals attainment. Parents are routinely asked to agree with statements such as, “Good school attendance is directly linked to better academic achievement for my child.” On the surface, this appears unobjectionable. Who could be against children attending school? Yet the language used – “directly linked” – reveals a deeper problem. It blurs the crucial distinction between correlation and causation, reducing a complex educational ecosystem to a crude behavioural metric. “Linked” is a deliberately vague word. In statistical terms, attendance and attainment are correlated: pupils who attend more often, on average, achieve higher grades. But correlation does not demonstrate that attendance itself cause...